![Keep Us Strong](/static/gfx/ja-cg.jpg)
![WikiLeaks logo](/static/gfx/WL_Hour_Glass_small.png)
Currently released so far... 5420 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
AF
AE
AJ
ASEC
AMGT
AR
AU
AG
AS
AM
AORC
AFIN
APER
ABUD
ATRN
AL
AEMR
ACOA
AO
AX
AMED
ADCO
AODE
AFFAIRS
AC
ASIG
ABLD
AA
AFU
ASUP
AROC
ATFN
AVERY
APCS
AER
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AEC
APECO
AGMT
CH
CASC
CA
CD
CV
CVIS
CMGT
CO
CI
CU
CBW
CLINTON
CE
CJAN
CIA
CG
CF
CN
CS
CAN
COUNTER
CDG
CIS
CM
CONDOLEEZZA
COE
CR
CY
CTM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CPAS
CWC
CT
CKGR
CB
CACS
COM
CJUS
CARSON
CL
COUNTERTERRORISM
CACM
CDB
EPET
EINV
ECON
ENRG
EAID
ETRD
EG
ETTC
EFIN
EU
EAGR
ELAB
EIND
EUN
EAIR
ER
ECIN
ECPS
EFIS
EI
EINT
EZ
EMIN
ET
EC
ECONEFIN
ENVR
ES
ECA
ELN
EN
EFTA
EWWT
ELTN
EXTERNAL
EINVETC
ENIV
EINN
ENGR
EUR
ESA
ENERG
EK
ENGY
ETRO
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ESENV
ENVI
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
ECIP
EINDETRD
EUC
EREL
IR
IZ
IS
IT
INTERPOL
IPR
IN
INRB
IAEA
IRAJ
INRA
INRO
IO
IC
ID
IIP
ITPHUM
IV
IWC
IQ
ICTY
ISRAELI
IRAQI
ICRC
ICAO
IMO
IF
ILC
IEFIN
INTELSAT
IL
IA
IBRD
IMF
INR
IRC
ITALY
ITALIAN
KCOR
KZ
KDEM
KN
KNNP
KPAL
KU
KWBG
KCRM
KE
KISL
KAWK
KSCA
KS
KSPR
KJUS
KFRD
KTIP
KPAO
KTFN
KIPR
KPKO
KNUC
KMDR
KGHG
KPLS
KOLY
KUNR
KDRG
KIRF
KIRC
KBIO
KHLS
KG
KACT
KGIC
KRAD
KCOM
KMCA
KV
KHDP
KVPR
KDEV
KWMN
KMPI
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KOMC
KTLA
KCFC
KTIA
KHIV
KPRP
KAWC
KCIP
KCFE
KOCI
KTDB
KMRS
KLIG
KBCT
KICC
KGIT
KSTC
KPAK
KNEI
KSEP
KPOA
KFLU
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KO
KTER
KSUM
KHUM
KRFD
KBTR
KDDG
KWWMN
KFLO
KSAF
KBTS
KPRV
KNPP
KNAR
KWMM
KERG
KFIN
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KTBT
KCRS
KRVC
KSTH
KREL
KNSD
KTEX
KPAI
KHSA
KR
KPWR
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KGCC
KPIN
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MTCRE
MX
MCAP
MO
MNUC
ML
MR
MZ
MPOS
MOPPS
MTCR
MAPP
MU
MY
MA
MG
MASC
MCC
MEPP
MK
MTRE
MP
MIL
MDC
MAR
MEPI
MRCRE
MI
MT
MQADHAFI
MD
MAPS
MUCN
MASSMNUC
MERCOSUR
MC
ODIP
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OEXC
OPRC
OFDP
OPDC
OTRA
OSCE
OAS
OPIC
OECD
OPCW
OSCI
OIE
OIC
OTR
OVP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
PGOV
PINR
PREL
PTER
PK
PHUM
PE
PARM
PBIO
PINS
PREF
PSOE
PBTS
PL
PHSA
PKFK
PO
PGOF
PROP
PA
PARMS
PORG
PM
PMIL
PTERE
POL
PF
PALESTINIAN
PY
PGGV
PNR
POV
PAK
PAO
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PRGOV
PNAT
PROV
PEL
PINF
PGOVE
POLINT
PRL
PRAM
PMAR
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PHUS
PHUMPREL
PG
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PINT
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PECON
POGOV
PINL
SCUL
SA
SY
SP
SNAR
SENV
SU
SW
SOCI
SL
SG
SMIG
SO
SF
SR
SN
SHUM
SZ
SYR
ST
SANC
SC
SAN
SIPRS
SK
SH
SI
SNARCS
STEINBERG
TX
TW
TU
TSPA
TH
TIP
TI
TS
TBIO
TRGY
TC
TR
TT
TERRORISM
TO
TFIN
TD
TSPL
TZ
TPHY
TK
TNGD
TINT
TRSY
TP
UK
UG
UP
UV
US
UN
UNSC
UNGA
USEU
USUN
UY
UZ
UNO
UNMIK
UNESCO
UE
UAE
UNEP
USTR
UNHCR
UNDP
UNHRC
USAID
UNCHS
UNAUS
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 10LONDON126, SCOTLAND: INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM NOT MOVING
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #10LONDON126.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
10LONDON126 | 2010-01-20 17:05 | 2011-02-04 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy London |
VZCZCXRO3193
PP RUEHBL
DE RUEHLO #0126/01 0201717
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 201717Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4696
INFO RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1502
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000126
SIPDIS
NOFORN
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS UK
SUBJECT: SCOTLAND: INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM NOT MOVING
FORWARD IN JANUARY
REF: 09 LONDON 2500 Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron, reasons 1.4 (b/d).
¶1. (SBU/NF) Summary and comment. First Minister Alex Salmond and his Scottish Nationalist Party-led (SNP) minority government are unlikely to introduce an independence referendum bill in the Scottish Parliament in January, as previously planned. According to well-placed sources, the SNP government's "referendum team" is now considering whether to go forward with the bill in February or March or whether to introduce the bill after Westminster elections conclude this spring. The SNP-led government is up against a block of opposition parties which has thus far vowed to kill any referendum. Given the tough political climate, the First Minister and his team are assessing their power to leverage the other parties into allowing the referendum bill to go forward this spring. If the bill goes forward and makes it through the introductory stage, then a referendum vote in late 2010 is likely. If the political climate proves too tough, First Minister Salmond and the SNP will not get their referendum vote and will likely continue to criticize opposition parties and their London-centric parent groups for continuing to undermine Scottish democracy and oppose the will of the Scottish electorate. Recent polling data suggests that only one-third of Scots support independence, while approximately two-thirds support increased devolution.
¶2. (C/NF) Salmond told the Ambassador in late 2009 that he does not have the support in the Scottish Parliament to pass a referendum bill. This appears to still be the case. However, with elections on the horizon and an SNP promise to deliver a referendum in its first term, we see a couple of possible scenarios. The SNP could introduce a bill calling for a referendum for Scotland's independence, knowing that it will be defeated. By doing so, the SNP would keep its promise and build campaign rhetoric about Scotland's democracy being stifled, claiming opposition parties were preventing Scots from having the opportunity to choose. Alternatively, the SNP could introduce a bill for a referendum calling for increased devolved powers, which opposition parties would be under pressure to back because of broad public support for increasing the Scottish government's authorities. End summary and comment.
The Origins of the Referendum Bill and Scottish Opposition Response ----------------------------------
¶3. (SBU) When First Minister Alex Salmond and his Scottish National Party (SNP) came into power in 2007 with a one-vote majority, they vowed to advance a core campaign promise to hold a referendum on Scottish independence during their first term in office. In response, Scottish opposition groups (who do not want an independent Scotland) supported the Scottish Parliament's creation of an independent committee in April 2008 to review the implementation of Scottish devolution since 1998, which became the Calman Commission on Scottish Devolution. In its final report released in late 2009, the Calman Commission recommended further devolved powers for Scotland, including a special Scottish income tax, ministerial powers to borrow funds for capital investments, and more negotiating powers for Scotland with the European Union.
¶4. (SBU/NF) Throughout 2009, UK Secretary of State for Scotland Jim Murphy played a leadership role in organizing the opposition parties, hoping to move Scotland toward implementation of the Calman recommendations as an alternative to an independence referendum, according to Murphy's advisors, Labour party insiders, and opposition party leaders. First Minister Salmond's response to independence critics (such as Murphy) has been to accelerate the implementation of the Calman recommendations as soon as possible - "to call the bluff." Some political pundits assess that opposition parties' inability to move on the report's recommendations has buoyed Salmond's case for a referendum. According to this theory, Salmond could gain politically by putting forward -- and winning -- with a softer referendum question that calls for further devolved powers, including those recommended by the Calman Commission (which is often referred to as the "devolution max" option). 5. (SBU/NF) Less controversial than full independence, "devolution max" enjoys broad public support. Nevertheless publicly, the SNP and opposition parties all claim that they would like a straight up-or-down vote on Scottish independence, as both sides continue to claim popular support for their respective positions. However, both the opposition LONDON 00000126 002 OF 003 and the SNP tell us privately that they would also support a referendum if the vote was only about further devolved powers, as long as the question was written in a politically neutral manner.
¶5. (SBU) At the opening of the Scottish Parliament in September 2009, Scottish National Party (SNP) First Minister Alex Salmond introduced a motion to discuss a possible independence referendum. The motion was roundly defeated. (Note: According to Scottish parliamentary experts, motions are considered "trial balloon discussions" of how a vote might be treated and are not formal. End note.) On November 30, 2009, Salmond launched his Government's White Paper on Scottish Independence, with the intention to introduce a bill into the Scottish Parliament in January 2010. If successful, the independence referendum would take place in autumn 2010. Over the past month, opposition parties (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green) have played on the weaknesses of the minority SNP-led government in order to stall SNP plans to introduce a referendum bill in January and to marginalize the SNP's political ambitions heading into the UK elections, which must be held before June, where the SNP hopes to increase its number of seats in Westminster.
Referendum Mechanics --------------------
¶6. (U) If the bill passes in the Scottish Parliament and goes forward, the Scottish Parliament will appoint a special committee to take evidence from constitutional and other experts. According to the team of government officials working on the referendum, once the bill is introduced, the government will naturally lose control of the process because it does not have enough votes to stack the special committee in the SNP's favor. This is one of the reasons the SNP has opted not to introduce the bill in January as originally planned, they have intimated. The Committee process could take up to three months. Parties will then negotiate the language of the bill and the language of the referendum question itself. Once the parties have agreed, the committee overseeing the process reports to the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Parliament then debates the bill, makes revisions and conducts a full floor vote. If the bill gets to the debate stage, it is likely to pass. A simple majority is sufficient to pass the bill.
Conservative - SNP Deal? ------------------------
¶7. (SBU/NF) The political jockeying around the Scottish independence referendum has created a climate of political intrigue in Scotland, with facts and rumors generally intertwined. Since the Tories (historically weak in Scotland) allied themselves with the SNP in 2007 as part of the SNP-led minority government, SNP insiders and political pundits have suggested that the SNP struck a deal with the Tories whereby the Conservative Party would not obstruct a Scottish independence referendum vote in exchange for mutual support in Westminster and Holyrood elections. Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie told the Edinburgh PO in November 2009: "While we are very opposed to Scotland leaving the Union, if the will of the Scottish people is for Independence, we won't stand in the way. But we believe that the will is not there." Although the Scottish Tories are fundamentally opposed to Scottish independence, they do not oppose a vote as a matter of policy. Whether the SNP-Tory deal exists remains in question, and any real effect it would have would be determined by how well the Conservatives fare in the Westminster polls. In Westminster, Tory leader David Cameron has not made any clear pronouncements about the Conservatives Party position on an independence referendum for Scotland.
¶8. (SBU) The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) have also moderated some of their statements on a referendum vote. According to Scottish Lib Dem Leader, Tavish Scott, the Lib Dems are not opposed to a referendum vote, "provided the question isn't rigged by the SNP." National Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said during a recent political rally in Scotland that there is an "unspoken affinity of interest" between Salmond and Cameron, alleging that the SNP and Tories share a "hostility for the Union."
What Scots Think About Independence and Devolution ---------------------------
¶9. (U) A poll published by the Center for Social Research on January 15, based on the responses of 1,482 individuals resident in Scotland interviewed in autumn 2009, indicates LONDON 00000126 003 OF 003 that only one third of Scots support full independence. Another third say independence would make no difference to their lives, and the third tier say that it would have a negative effect. Two-thirds, however, support increased devolution, as recommend by the Calman Commission report. Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX
SUSMAN